The opening post in this series
contained the statement that my positive outlook for the Norristown area of Southeastern Pa. (hereinafter referred to as Norristown/Bridgeport) was based largely on what is
happening outside the borough(s). This
post outlines the broad situation, in simple terms and with a metaphor. I’ve long ago lost track of how many
metaphors have been applied to Norristown, so one more won’t matter a great
deal.
The subject is property values.
For that, think of the central Montgomery County area as a reverse pizza. In this metaphor we are only
talking about the bread, and measuring how tastefully (read “profitably”) it
rises. Unlike real pizza, the actual
flatbread center portion (Norristown/Bridgeport) is small, surrounded by
extensive yeasty bread crust. While
“flat” is something of an exaggeration, the area’s housing values contrast
sharply with the rising values of its surroundings. Yeasty can derive from greatly different circumstances,
and I offer the townships of Upper Merion and Worcester as evidence. Two more contrasting townships can hardly be
imagined, but the property values in each have risen sharply and show no signs
of dropping any time soon.
It is this difference in property values drives the revival of old towns
that had become flatbread surrounded by the yeasty suburbs. The greater the difference the greater the
incentive, all other things being equal.
Of course, they are not, and that is where the difficulty begins. Those who live in the central municipal
flatbread long to see their own bread rising, and experiment with recipes as
they can afford them. That is because in
the real world, the baking process is always ongoing, and yeast can be injected
at any time. The question is, what mix
of yeasty ingredients will work for YOUR town?
There are recipes aplenty, but they may—or they may not—work, depending
on how relevant they are to the specific reality of a town.
I’m only going to focus on one ingredient that has a yeasty result, for
two reasons: one, because it comes the closest to being guaranteed, and two,
because Norristown, Pa. will experience it. I
call it “access to transportation.” This
phrasing is deliberately vague, because it means far more than owning an
automobile. Pretty much everyone has to
do that, usually because you have to be able to get between your home and work
that might be far away. Even if you have
the opportunity to utilize alternate transportation—and Norristown/Bridgeport
do—you will probably need to drive to the parking lots at the transportation
stations, as only a very few will be able to walk to them. I’ll return to the subject of alternate
transportation in a later post, because Norristown/Bridgeport stand to benefit
from a new one. It is still in “the planning stage,” and therefore nothing
to bank on.
So I focus on those who must drive between home and work. Cars need roads, but not all roads are
created equal. In Southeastern Pennsylvania
today, the quickest path to urban reinvigoration comes from a nearby exit off
at least one limited-access highway, because this greatly extends the potential
commuting range for both residents and businesses. Such a location, plus
“buildable land” (often available in old industrial towns) are what developers
are looking for. The Conshohockens lie
at the intersection of two such highways, and possesses (or at least it used
to) buildable land in a scenic location.
That is the fundamental reason for all that is happening there.
Development grows around connections to limited-access highways, and the
Conshohockens provide relevant examples.
It then spreads out, in a complex equation that, for prospective
buyers/renters involves distance, driving time, quality of location, price, and
one’s willingness to sacrifice one or more of those features incrementally to
improve others. But as development
grows, so does traffic congestion, so the equation is constantly shifting.
The central point is that, as the yeasty growth of property values in
nearby proximity to an intersection continues, the steadily increasing price
difference will inexorably drive development toward flatbread areas. The specific reality—in all directions—will
be determined by the shifting conclusion about how far away you will be from work, and that’s as much time as
distance, remember.
If everything else remained the same, this process currently evolving in
the Conshohockens might—emphasis might—eventually
benefit Bridgeport. Norristown, probably
not. But something else that is scheduled
to happen will offer Norristown its best “access to transportation” since the
arrival of the Pennsylvania Turnpike in the mid-20th century. Bridgeport stands to benefit also. That will be the subject of a future post in this series.
Access to the Pennsylvania Turnpike could be the step required to place
Norristown/Bridgeport squarely in the sights of local developers. I more than suspect that several are already
well into researching specific properties, market demand and expected
timing. The area wants both new
businesses and new residents, but expect to see more of the latter than the
former. That’s fine, because people who
live in an area have a greater interest in it than those who just work there during
the day. Of course you want people of a
higher economic standing than those who have tended to migrate to the area in
recent years. Different demographic groups make different contributions,
but most of all you want couples, preferably young, who either have children or
are planning a family when the time is right.
Such people are the foundation of a reviving community, and often the
most willing to take a chance on a neighborhood or town that might still be a
little sketchy on the safety/cleanliness scale, but still might be on the verge
of turning around.
This is where I segue from outside your borders to beyond your control. Once a prospective new family
has satisfied itself about their neighborhood’s safety and cleanliness (they
are directly related, of course), the quality of the local school district
become the next big question. This may
be the one advantage that Bridgeport has over Norristown, but their respective
situations demonstrate the unfortunate fact that a critical factor in a
municipality’s attractiveness—its school system—is also beyond its
control. A school district transcends
municipal boundaries and operates under entirely different regulations because
it has entirely different goals. The
district takes a portion of your tax money in what is a cooperative venture,
but is not directly accountable to municipal officials for how it is
spent. This aggravates all
municipalities involved, but for different reasons. The flatbread that is Norristown/Bridgeport
takes proportionate blame for the statistical performance of two school
districts. Neither is considered an
asset by their district neighbors.
The irony, of course, is that a better community produces a better school system. If you have a dynamic, growing and
economically improving municipality, its residents will send their children
better prepared and supported to the school district, which will reap the
benefits. Schooling can make
things better, and it can make things worse, but both directions are relative,
depending on where along the economic scale the community exists. The public school systems—and teachers
in particular—are routinely vilified because they cannot undo the neglect and
deprivation that their students from lower income families have experienced
before they get to school and which continues during those all-important
years. There is a direct correlation
between student economic circumstances and student achievement, and it is the only one that can be substantiated with
research. Not race, not ethnicity, not
religion, not anything else. Once again,
it’s all about The Benjamins.
This is the last I will have to say about such an important
subject. My focus is on
municipalities. Please do not consider
that by not discussing the subject I am shunting it aside or down anyone’s
priority list. I most certainly do not,
and no one should.
Next time: another potentially huge
issue outside Norristown’s control, and a history lesson on why it is
important.
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